From January to February 2022, China's total social logistics volume was 51.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% based on comparable prices. The growth rate of total social logistics volume continued the rebound trend since the fourth quarter of last year, and was significantly higher than the level in 2019 before the epidemic, indicating that the overall logistics demand was still on the recovery path, and the logistics operation started smoothly.
From the perspective of structure, the effect of the policy of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption has continued to emerge, and the demand for industrial and consumer logistics has maintained a rapid growth; From the external perspective, the global economic cycle has not yet returned to the normal level, and the demand for import logistics continues to fall.
The new driving force of rapid growth in industrial logistics demand continues to strengthen
After the holiday, enterprises resumed work and production in an orderly manner, and the demand for industrial logistics maintained a rapid growth. In January-February, the total volume of industrial goods logistics increased by 7.5% year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points faster than the average growth rate in 2020-2021.
From the perspective of structure, the new driving force continues to develop, and its supporting role for industrial logistics demand is enhanced. The high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry continued to grow rapidly. In January-February, the total logistics volume of high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 14.4% and 9.6% year on year, respectively, 2.3 and 3.4 percentage points faster than that in December last year.
From the perspective of industry, computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, and instrument and meter manufacturing industry all achieved double-digit growth, and the growth rate was accelerated on a month-on-month basis. In addition, the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 7.2% year-on-year, 4.4 percentage points faster than that in December of last year, in which the output of new energy vehicles increased by 150.5% year-on-year, and continued to grow at a high speed on the basis of the double growth of the previous year.
People's livelihood consumption logistics demand recovery accelerates the continuous development of new business forms
In January-February, driven by online promotion factors such as the "Online New Year Festival", the demand for manufacturing logistics of consumer goods at the production end accelerated to recover, and the demand for logistics such as e-commerce online shopping at the sales end remained hot. From the production side, the recovery of the consumer goods manufacturing industry accelerated. The logistics demand of the consumer goods manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% year-on-year in January and February, 5.2 percentage points faster than the average growth rate in 2020-2021.
From the perspective of the sales side, the new business form still plays a significant role in helping. In January-February, the total amount of goods logistics of units and residents increased by 10.5% year-on-year; Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3% year on year. The e-commerce logistics index showed that the growth of e-commerce logistics business volume in the first two months was more than 25% year on year, and the growth of rural business volume was also close to 25%, maintaining a rapid growth trend.
The logistics demand continues to decline as the import price increases
Since the fourth quarter of last year, international commodity prices have continued to rise, which has had a certain impact on China's relevant imports. The data shows that in January-February, the import logistics volume fell by 3.5% year-on-year, falling for five consecutive months. However, it should also be noted that the decline of import logistics volume has narrowed since this year. With the gradual recovery of China's economy and supply chain in the future, the import scale will also expand.
From the perspective of import structure, the import volume of crude oil, coal, lignite and steel decreased due to factors such as sharp rise in prices, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.9%, 14.0% and 7.9% respectively; The demand for meat import in agricultural products maintained a downward trend, down 33% year on year.
Expansion of logistics market scale and acceleration of industry integration
The scale of the logistics market continued to expand, and the industry integration accelerated. Since 2021, the market scale of the logistics industry has continued to expand, and the growth rate of the total revenue of the logistics industry has also maintained a relatively high level. In January-February, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 1.6 trillion yuan, up 9.7% year on year, faster than the level in 2019 before the epidemic.
With the development and expansion of new drivers, the structure of logistics demand has been constantly changing, and higher requirements have been put forward for logistics services. Especially since the epidemic, the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry has been significantly accelerated, and the logistics market has entered an accelerated integration period. The revenue share of the top 50 logistics enterprises in China has risen to the highest level in recent years, and the overall industrial concentration has steadily increased. Segmented fields, such as the leading enterprises of express delivery, have further promoted the industrial concentration through mergers and acquisitions. According to the data of the National Post Office, the brand concentration index CR8 of express and parcel service in January-February was 85.3, which was significantly higher than that of the whole year and the same period in 2021.
The transportation business grows rapidly and the logistics enterprises operate more efficiently. In terms of physical volume, the freight volume of the whole society in February increased by 15.5% year on year, of which the highway freight volume increased by 21.1%. From the perspective of enterprise business, the total business volume index in February rose instead of falling, and the index rose 0.1 percentage points to 51.2% from the previous month. Driven by factors such as resumption of work and production since February, the physical volume and business volume of the logistics industry have maintained a good growth trend, while the logistics has maintained a relatively efficient operating efficiency. In February, the capital turnover rate index and equipment utilization rate index in the logistics industry boom index rose 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, and remained above 50% for six consecutive months, reflecting that enterprises actively improve the efficiency of capital use, improve the efficiency of logistics equipment operation, and play a certain role in adjusting the tight balance between supply and demand of personnel in the two months at the beginning of the year.
Overall, in the first two months of this year, the macro economy continued to recover, and the growth rate of logistics demand scale maintained a good level. From the perspective of market demand and expectation, the new order index and business activity expectation index in the logistics industry prosperity index are 50.2% and 59.7% respectively, which are higher than that of last month. Among them, the business activity expectation index has been running in the high boom range for two consecutive months, indicating that the logistics enterprises have a good expectation for the development of the industry.
However, it should also be noted that since March, unstable and uncertain factors have increased, and the logistics industry has become more difficult to ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
From the external environment, the impact of the epidemic in some regions is still continuing, and the development level of various industries and regions is uneven. At the same time, the geopolitical conflict is still continuing, and the possible cross-border logistics channels in the European direction are not smooth, the transport capacity is tight, the freight rate is rising, and the supply chain impact increases the pressure on the supply and price stability of key commodities, which needs to be tracked and analyzed and closely watched.
From the perspective of market vitality, the operating costs of logistics enterprises are rising, the rising pressure of raw materials and labor costs has increased, and the foundation for the overall recovery of the industry needs to be further strengthened:
First, the linkage between logistics service price and cost is weak. Although the cost of raw materials such as oil prices continued to rise, the price of logistics services did not rise significantly. In February, the service price index in the logistics industry boom index fell by 0.2 percentage points instead of rising, and the transport prices of highway logistics and coastal bulk cargo fell back on a month-on-month basis, indicating that in the context of the current homogenized competition of freight services, the industry's bargaining power is low, and there is a certain lag in the linkage between costs and logistics service prices.
Second, the profitability of the industry is under further pressure. Key survey data show that the logistics business cost of key logistics enterprises increased 17.3% year-on-year in January-February, and the cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue was 90.7 yuan, up 1% year-on-year, and significantly higher than the average level of industrial enterprises above designated size. Among them, fuel costs and labor costs have risen by more than double digits respectively under the influence of factors such as rising commodity prices and structural shortage of labor. From the perspective of profit, the loss of key logistics enterprises in January and February was nearly 30%, up 2.5 percentage points year on year, indicating that the operating pressure of logistics enterprises has increased, leading to further compression of profit space. The overall revenue margin was around 3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the damage to small and medium-sized logistics enterprises is more obvious. The profit margin of small and medium-sized logistics enterprises is less than 3%, lower than that of the same period last year, and there is a large gap between them and large and medium-sized enterprises.